Mid Season Monsoon Status Report 2009- Punjab

Period ( 1^st June- 2^nd August)

Progress of the monsoon over a state/ Meteorological region is monitored by evaluating departure of actual rainfall from normal . These departures are classified as excess, normal, deficient and scanty on the basis of following criteria . Excess +20% or more, Normal +19 to -19%, Deficient -20 to -59% , Scanty -60 to -99%, No rain -100%.

Long Range forecast 2009 :- India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational long range forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall in two stages. First stage forecast is issued in April for the country as a whole and then second stage updated forecast for State/subdivision is issued in June. IMD long range forecast for year 2009 for country as a whole issued in April and June are given below.

First Stage Forecast issued on 17^th April, 2009

IMD’s long range forecast for monsoon season (June to September 2009) issued in April for the country as a whole was Near Normal. Quantitatively, monsoon seasonal rainfall prediction was 96% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%. The Long period average rainfall for the country as a whole for the period (1941-1990) is 89 cm. Updated forecast issued in June indicated below normal rainfall for the country as a whole with prediction of 93% of long period average with model error error of +4%. Rainfall predicted for the country as whole and for Northwest India including Punjab for the month of July was 93% of Long period Average and for August was 101% of LPA with model error of +9%. Long period Average for Punjab for month of July and August is 189 and 168.4 mm respectively period (1941-1990). Updated Prediction of monsoon rainfall ( June-Sept) for Punjab was 81% of LPA. LPA of Monsoon rainfall for Punjab( June-Sept) is 501 mm .

Current Status of Monsoon in Punjab.

This year monsoon advanced Punjab on 30^th June 2009 near to its normal onset date of around 29^th June compare to last year advance of 13^th June earliest onset on record. Subsequently Monsoon remained in weak phase till last week of July month with poor spatial and temporal distribution except couple of well spells in first weak and second week of July beside recent wet spell from 28^th to 30^th July. overall performance of monsoon rainfall subdued till third week of July leading to delay in sowing/transplanting of major Kharif crops especially paddy and also had impact in planning of different sectors including water management system. State of Punjab receive average rainfall of about 501 mm during monsoon period ( June-September) . It is observed that rainfall in monsoon period( June to September) and for July month is erratic/deficient in recent years . Rainfall in the month of June is lowest in recent years. Their performances in recent years is shown in fig A .

In the current monsoon season State received about 180.2mm of total rainfall from 1st June to 2^nd August against it normal rainfall of 247 mm with overall deficiency of 27% and shown in Table A . Comparative performance of rainfall for corresponding period of previous years is shown in fig B. During the above period all districts except Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur, Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Kapurthala ,Ropar and Sangrur in the state received deficent to scanty rainfall. Time series of actual and normal rainfall from 20^th June to 2^nd August alongwith their departures is shown in fig C and D. Week wise Performance of rainfall from 1^st June to 2^nd August alongwith its comparison from corresponding period of last year is shown in fig E.

Rainfall deficiency or Meteorological Drought

Rainfall deficiency or meteorological drought is not uncommon in the state they do occur from time to time. India Metrological Deptt defines drought in any area when rainfall deficiency in that area is more 25% from long term normal . It is further classified in to moderate and sever drought depending upon whether the deficiency is between 26 to 50% and more than 50%. The most important among all forms of droughts is the meteorological drought since it is the ultimate cause of other forms of droughts. No one-sided trends or well-defined cycles of rainfall have been identified to enable reliable forecasts of droughts. Opportunities however exist to understand the incidence and spread of droughts over different regions. A climatological analysis of various aspects of droughts combined with the agricultural pattern of a region can provide a potential tool for minimizing the adverse impacts of drought to the planners, particularly those concerned with water -resource management and agricultural land planning. Going by the climatology Punjab has been classified in to frequently drought prone region with 17%probability of occurrence of drought and can expect drought once in 6-10 years with frequency of about 18 moderate and 4 sever drought. Study Period ( 1875-2008) . Years of occurrences of two or more than 2 consecutive droughts are in the years 1904-1904, 1920-1921,1928-1929,1938-1939,1964-1965. 1918,1920,1921, 1939 were years of widespread drought with nos of districts experiencing drought were 10-12. 1918 and 1921 were the year when almost whole state affected by drought. Performance of monsoon rainfall in Punjab in recent years are given below.

Fig A

Table 1 ( 1^st June-2^nd August)

District	Actual Rainfall (mm)	Normal	Departure
AMRITSAR	81.6	258.1	-68
BATHINDA	111.7	156.2	-28
FARIDKOT	92.5	175.4	-47
FATEHGARH SHAIB	100.7	288.8	-65
FEROZPUR	21.8	167.1	-87
GURDASPUR	300.9	372.9	-19
HOSHIARPUR	304.4	369.9	-18
JALANDHAR	315.2	269.2	17
KAPURTHALA	365.5	178.3	105
LUDHIANA	314.8	255.4	23
MOGA	91.0	179.5	-49
MUKATSAR	58.2	141.4	-59
NAWANSHAR	182.2	368.3	-51
PATIALA	136.4	264.2	-45
ROPAR	285.0	330.2	-14
SANGRUR	234.4	239.0	-2
STATE	180.2	247.5	-27

Fig B

Fig C

Fig D

Fig E

Weather outlook for week time :- Latest analysis and interpretation of different weather model indicate subdued monsoon condition in Punjab State for next 4-5 days with isolated to scattered rainfall in districts adjoining foothills. Analysis further indicate another wet spell from 8^th August onward.